Sal Guatieri, a reliable stats guy at BMO Financial Group noted a recent divergence in the overall unemployment rate and the insured unemployment rate. What does this mean, Sal?
The insured unemployment rate has fallen nearly one ppt since June to its lowest level in 7 months (4.3% of covered employment). Some of the decline simply reflects claimants exhausting benefits rather than getting new jobs. Still, a decline of this size almost always tracks the unemployment rate lower. This is one of the few indicators that argues against another “jobless recovery,”as per the last two. Stay tuned.